Download Against the Consensus: Reflections on the Great Recession by Lin J.Y. PDF

By Lin J.Y.

In June 2008, Justin Yifu Lin was once appointed leader Economist of the area financial institution, correct earlier than the eruption of the worst worldwide monetary and monetary situation because the nice melancholy. Drawing on adventure from his privileged place, Lin deals precise reflections at the reason for the quandary, why it used to be so critical and frequent, and its most likely evolution. Arguing that traditional theories supply insufficient strategies, he proposes new projects for reaching international balance and fending off the recurrence of comparable crises sooner or later. He means that the obstacle and the worldwide imbalances either originated with the surplus liquidity created via US monetary deregulation and free financial coverage, and recommends the production of an international Marshall Plan and a brand new supranational worldwide reserve forex. This thought-provoking e-book will attract lecturers, graduate scholars, coverage makers, and somebody drawn to the worldwide financial system

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Additional resources for Against the Consensus: Reflections on the Great Recession

Sample text

Two main hypotheses have been proposed. One hypothesis is that East Asian and Chinese economic policies led to a global savings glut that lowered interest rates, stimulating unbridled financial sector growth and inflating the US housing bubble. The exportled growth strategies, efforts to self-insure against a future balance of payments crisis, and the undervaluation of the Chinese currency resulted in large and unmanageable current account surpluses and international reserves. Systematic export promotion by China and East Asian economies through a variety of macroeconomic and microeconomic policies, including dumping, was viewed as the main cause of the global imbalances.

The protracted period of low short-term interest rates in combination with financial innovation also lowered long-term interest rates by dampening inflationary expectations and making financial assets appear less risky. That led to excess liquidity and to a housing price boom beginning in 2002. As a result, the US economy surged, but domestic production could not keep up with rising domestic consumption. Imports bridged the supply gap in consumer goods, including imports from oil-exporting countries, leading to current account deficits with these countries.

For example, US net saving will not necessarily rise when the US dollar loses value. Finally, if undervaluation of the yuan caused the global imbalances, the following three empirical phenomena should have occurred.  When the yuan appreciated by 20 percent between 2005 and 2008 the US trade deficit with China should have declined. It did not happen.  The US trade deficit with other countries competing with China should have declined, causing other countries to reduce their trade surpluses. This did not happen.

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