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All the coefficients linked to this variable suggest a negative connection – seven of these eight coefficients are statistically significant – between a respondent’s age and support for extremist candidates. In this regard, older voters’ reserve toward Jean-Marie Le Pen’s candidature is the most consistent. The graying of the moderate-left electorate relative to that of the extreme right since 1995 is equally notable. indd 37 6/28/2011 8:21:06 PM 38 French Presidential Elections logistic regression coefficients reveal the existence of a positive link between age and socialist vote and a negative association between the same variable and support for extreme-right candidates, since 1995.
Candidate effects are treated in two different ways. First, they are assessed in terms of leadership qualities, a neglected field of presidential election studies in France (see Chapter 6). Second, the role of candidates is assessed dynamically, through examination of campaigns (Chapter 7). In a systematic series of logistic regression analyses, the weight of each of these sets of explanatory variables is assessed, as is the weight of the overall model. The equations are specified and estimated progressively, in accordance with the funnel of causality.
All these findings point to the question: is it possible that the gender gap observed in various democracies is less pronounced in France? indd 18 6/28/2011 8:21:03 PM Social Structure 19 Education The effect of education on French electoral behavior has also changed. Yet we can see over time that the relationship between level of education and political orientation on a left-right axis has never been linear. In fact, each large political families is characterized by having the support of both more educated and less educated voters.